Economic bulletin

We are ambitious for the economy of Staffordshire, our businesses, and people. The impacts of global events continue to be felt on the local, national, and global economies and cannot be ignored. However, the county council, Government, and our partners, will continue to support Staffordshire’s residents and businesses through challenging times, ensuring we are well-placed to deliver a more resilient, more dynamic and more productive local economy.

Our ambitious Economic Strategy is our roadmap to delivering our ambitions for the Staffordshire economy, where our existing business are helped to grow, new businesses are established and thrive, our residents have the skills needed to access the jobs of the future and our towns across the county are supported to be places we can all be proud of.

An Employment and Skills Strategy 2023-2030 has been developed to support this and can be used to guide future employment and skills work programmes, to enable effective communication of Staffordshire’s shared employment and skills goals, and to inform the development of the Local Skills Improvement Plan (LSIP) for Stoke-on-Trent and Staffordshire.

A summary brochure of the Staffordshire Employment and Skills Strategy 2023-2030 has also been produced.

To effectively achieve our priorities and deliver our long-term vision for our economy we need robust ongoing analysis and evidence of the latest economic picture, ensuring that we are aware of any challenges that may arise. The monthly Economic Bulletin forms a key part of our live evidence base.

Latest edition

Edition 47 (2.41 MB)

Welcome to the latest edition of the Staffordshire & Stoke-on-Trent Economic Bulletin produced by our Economy, Skills and Insight Teams, which provides the timeliest analysis of official Government data, national intelligence and local insights on the state of the local economy.

Alongside information on the Claimant Count and Job Vacancies that will be a part of every Bulletin, this month’s issue also provides more detailed youth claimant count analysis and updated ward level analysis of the claimant count to help identify areas which are being impacted the hardest by unemployment and a reliance on work-related benefits across Staffordshire & Stoke-on-Trent and where there may be a greater need for support. We also provide analysis of the latest business insolvency data to further understand how businesses are faring during the current economic climate.

We hope you find the Bulletin useful and welcome your comments and suggestions on further information you would like to see included in future editions. If you do have any feedback please send your comments to Darren Farmer, Economy & Skills Analyst at darren.farmer@staffordshire.gov.uk.

Stay Safe,

Darryl Eyers

Director for Economy, Infrastructure and Skills, Staffordshire County Council

Key messages from edition 47

Local Picture

In Staffordshire having seen improvement in the local economy and labour market following the COVID pandemic, as seen nationally, we have seen unemployment, youth unemployment and dependency on work-related benefits increase during the energy and cost-of-living crisis.
This month we have seen an increase in the Claimant Count which is in part reflective of the ongoing economic conditions but also due to benefit system changes introduced in May.
Although job vacancies have declined it is positive that they remain above pre-pandemic levels meaning that there are job opportunities across Staffordshire for those that unfortunately find themselves out of work.
We will continue to support our residents into work and ensure that Staffordshire has the strong workforce it needs to grow the economy.
We also continue to support local businesses that face ongoing challenging conditions due to a wide range of factors including high interest rates and energy prices, increased commodity costs, increasing wage levels and lower consumer demand.
Looking at the local data in more detail, following increases in the claimant count since before the start of the year, the number of work-related benefit claimants in Staffordshire increased by 495 this month to a total of 15,800 claimants. We have also seen increases both regionally and nationally this month.
The claimant rate for Staffordshire has increased this month from 2.9% to 3.0% of the working age population. Staffordshire remains one of the lowest rates in the West Midlands, far lower than the average for the region of 5.4%, and lower than the average for England at 4.1%, which both increased from 5.0% and 3.9% respectively.
Turning to job vacancies, Staffordshire saw a 3% decrease in the number of available job vacancies between May and June to a total of 13,800. This is lower than the number of work-related benefit claimants. Stoke-on-Trent saw a 2% decrease in job vacancies to a total of 5,600 which is significantly lower than the number of claimants. Across the region in the last month there was a 4% decrease, and nationally there was also a 2% decrease in job vacancies.
Although we are seeing a slight decline in total vacancies, positively for those residents out of work, demand for labour remains comparatively high with the number of vacancies still above pre-pandemic levels.
Considering the top 20 job vacancy occupations in Stoke-on-Trent and Staffordshire, demand for roles in social care continue to remain high with ‘Care Workers and Home Carers’ being the most in demand occupations. The following occupations ‘Sales Related,’ ‘Teaching Assistants’ and ‘Secondary Education Teaching Professionals’ also have strong demand.
There continue to be reports of labour and skills shortages with not enough skilled workers to fill the vacant jobs. This has the potential to slow down economic growth and limit business survival unless the labour shortage and skills gap is quickly and effectively addressed. Clearly employment support organisations, skills providers and the Government’s Plan for Jobs including the Restart schemes and new Skills Bootcamps have a vital role in upskilling and reskilling jobseekers into areas of demand and preventing them becoming long-term unemployed. Government and business sectors have a key role in ensuring that jobs in areas of demand are attracting workers with good pay and terms and conditions to help prevent labour shortages.
It is clear there continues to be a high number of jobs available in the local economy and the need now is to ensure that there is a strong local labour pool with skilled workers able to fill these roles to support business recovery/survival and improve prosperity through better pay. The national and local support which is in place to support those that have been unfortunate enough to lose their jobs is vital in both reskilling and upskilling as well as enabling potential applicants to access the opportunities available. Encouraging those that have become economically inactive due to COVID will further help to address labour shortages and skills gaps.
Staffordshire County Council’s new Job Brokerage Service is designed to do exactly this by matching local people, employers, and training providers to fill jobs and provide people with the jobs and careers they need.
There are clear emerging opportunities for job creation in digital (including online retail and e-commerce) and the green economy (including retrofitting homes to improve energy efficiency, electric cars e.g., Jaguar Land Rover, and hydrogen e.g., JCB).
We will also look to build on our existing strengths including engineering and advanced manufacturing through the adoption of AI, Automation and Machine Learning, construction to achieve Government house building targets and build major new infrastructure projects such as the West Midlands Freight Interchange which will create 8,500 new jobs. Also advanced logistics with ecommerce creating continued demand and the recent announcement by Pets At Home in Stafford creating over 750 new jobs.

Local Initiatives

Staffordshire and Stoke-on-Trent businesses that have been turned down by other lenders can now apply to the Staffordshire and Stoke-on-Trent Business Loan Fund, supporting businesses to grow through affordable, unsecured loans from £10,000 to £50,000.
Applications for Staffordshire Means Back to Business Scheme business loans and grants remain open to small businesses in Staffordshire, including the Get Started and Grow Scheme.
Alongside this there is support available through the Growth Hub and we have our start-up schemes and the Staffordshire Jobs and Careers Service.
The Staffordshire Business and Enterprise Network (SBEN) continues to support local businesses with the transition to Net Zero.
To ensure residents have access to the support needed to find employment there are several employment and skills programmes which they can access including the Restart Scheme and skills bootcamps.
Stoke-On-Trent & Staffordshire Growth Hub have partnered with the Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) to offer free 1-2-1 virtual business support sessions.
The Staffordshire County Council Workplace Health Service, working with public health and local health experts, offers businesses a comprehensive and funded package of online and in-person support.
Businesses across Staffordshire have the opportunity to build confidence and skill-up their staff for free with the government's Multiply scheme.
Businesses in Staffordshire can now apply for free energy assessments through the Green Solutions scheme.
A new fund has been launched to help support Staffordshire Moorlands SMEs on their business growth journey.

National Context

We have also seen the Labour Party win the General Election with Sir Keir Starmer taking over as the UK’s Prime Minster with Government operations being restructured around Labour’s five missions.
King Charles has outlined the new Labour government’s law-making plans in a speech to Parliament. The speech outlined 39 bills that minsters want to pass in the next parliamentary session.

Cost of Living

UK inflation remained at the Bank of England’s target level of 2 per cent in the 12 months to June 2024, the same rate as the 12 months to May 2024 following the decline from 2.3 per cent in the 12 months to April 2024.
Real pay growth continues to be higher than inflation. Annual growth in employees' average regular earnings (excluding bonuses) in Great Britain was 5.7% in March to May 2024, and annual growth in total earnings (including bonuses) was 5.7%.
Annual growth in real terms (adjusted for inflation using the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH)) for regular pay was 2.5% in March to May 2024, and for total pay was 2.2%.

Economy

The UK economy grew by more than initially estimated in the first three months of 2024 as the UK emerged from recession, with revised official figures from the Office for National Statistics showing that between January and March the economy grew by 0.7 per cent up from the previous figure of 0.6 per cent.
The latest monthly figures show that real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown by 0.4% in May 2024 after showing no growth in April 2024.
Real gross domestic product is estimated to have grown by 0.9% in the three months to May 2024 compared with the three months to February 2024, driven by a growth of 1.1% in services output.

Business Conditions

We are aware that there are still many businesses struggling due to a wide range of factors including high interest rates and energy prices, increased commodity costs, wage pressures, supply-chain constraints, lower consumer confidence and labour market challenges.
The latest results from Wave 112 of the Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS), which was live from 1 to 14 July 2024 suggest that business conditions continue to remain challenging, with the proportion of trading businesses expecting their turnover to increase, falling from a high of 22% for March 2024, to 15% for August 2024.
The latest business insolvencies data which shows that in June 2024 there were a total of 2,352 company insolvencies in England and Wales, 9% higher than the number registered in the previous year (2,167 in June 2023), and 95% higher than the number registered three years previously: 1,206 in June 2021). The main concern around company and individual insolvencies are associated issues such as mental health and homelessness.

Labour Market

This month's labour market figures continue to show signs of gradual cooling, with the number of vacancies still falling and unemployment rising. Earnings growth remains relatively strong although lower than a few months ago.
In summary, there has been a further fall in the headline employment rate from the ONS Labour Force Survey but a slight rise in the total number of people on payrolls from HMRC data. The number of payrolled employees remains well above pre-pandemic levels, while the employment rate is still below its pre-pandemic level. Over the last quarter unemployment increased again to its highest for almost a year and is above its pre-pandemic level, while economic inactivity saw a slight decreased but remains well above its pre-pandemic level. Job vacancies have seen a further decline which reflects the long-term trend but remain above pre-pandemic levels.
Estimates for payrolled employees in the UK increased by 54,000 (0.2%) between April and May 2024, and rose by 265,000 (0.9%) between May 2023 and May 2024.
The early estimate of payrolled employees for June 2024 increased by 16,000 (0.1%) on the month and increased by 241,000 (0.8%) on the year, to 30.4 million and 1.4 million above pre-pandemic level.
The UK employment rate (for people aged 16 to 64 years) was estimated at 74.4% in March to May 2024, below estimates of a year ago, and decreased in the latest quarter and 1.8pp below pre-pandemic level.
The UK unemployment rate (for people aged 16 years and over) was estimated at 4.4% in March to May 2024, above estimates of a year ago, and increased in the latest quarter and 0.4pp above pre-pandemic level.
The UK economic inactivity rate for people aged 16 to 64 years was estimated at 22.1% in March to May 2024, above estimates of a year ago, but decreased in the latest quarter and 1.6pp above pre-pandemic level.
The UK Claimant Count for June 2024 increased on the month and on the year, to 1.663 million.
In April to June 2024, the estimated number of vacancies in the UK decreased by 30,000 on the quarter to 889,000. Vacancies decreased on the quarter for the twenty forth consecutive period but are still 93,000 above pre-pandemic levels.

Conclusion

In conclusion, we have seen a change in Government over the last month, with significant new policies starting to emerge which will impact the way we live and work.
Inflation has remained at the Bank’s target of 2 per cent, although there remain some parts of the economy where prices are still rising quicker, and this may delay any potential interest rate cuts. While wage levels continue to rise above the rate of inflation and will further ease cost of living pressures.
The economy continues to grow with all three main sectors contributing positively to GDP growth in May 2024. Although for some businesses they continue to operate in challenging conditions with high interest rates and energy prices, increased commodity costs, wage pressures, supply-chain constraints, lower consumer confidence and labour market challenges.
The labour market continues to cool with the number of vacancies still falling and unemployment rising. There is the positive that for the first time in months we saw economic inactivity decline and although vacancies continue to decline they still remain above pre-pandemic levels meaning that there are still opportunities for those looking for work.
We need to continue to support those still struggling with the cost-of-living, residents to transition into work and viable businesses to survive and grow. By reducing the impact on our business base, we can see faster recovery and greater economic growth to the benefit of all.
In Staffordshire we have a confident, diverse, and robust economy, demonstrated by the improvement and recovery witnessed since the last lockdown due to Covid. As the ongoing global and national socio-economic challenges persist it remains vital that local partners work together to support local businesses and residents. We continue to deliver the Staffordshire Means Business Programme which has helped hundreds of Staffordshire businesses transition to new business models including diversification, digitisation and greenification to improve their viability and sustainability.
We continue to support residents into work and help businesses address ongoing labour shortages and skills gaps to aid survival and growth. A key part of this being the recently established Staffordshire Jobs and Careers Brokerage Service which is designed to match local people, employers, and training providers to fill jobs and provide people with the jobs and careers they need.
Alongside this the Government’s ‘Plan for Jobs’ schemes such as Restart, and Skills Bootcamps have an important role to play in ensuring that local residents have the skills and training needed within the local economy to support increased growth, productivity, and prosperity. Reskilling and upskilling residents from declining sectors into priority growth areas of the economy such as digital, green, advanced manufacturing, advanced logistics, construction, and health and social care where they can access higher value better paid jobs will be key.