Economic bulletin

We are ambitious for the economy of Staffordshire, our businesses, and people. The impacts of global events continue to be felt on the local, national, and global economies and cannot be ignored. However, the county council, Government, and our partners, will continue to support Staffordshire’s residents and businesses through challenging times, ensuring we are well-placed to deliver a more resilient, more dynamic and more productive local economy.

Our ambitious Economic Strategy is our roadmap to delivering our ambitions for the Staffordshire economy, where our existing business are helped to grow, new businesses are established and thrive, our residents have the skills needed to access the jobs of the future and our towns across the county are supported to be places we can all be proud of.

An Employment and Skills Strategy 2023-2030 has been developed to support this and can be used to guide future employment and skills work programmes, to enable effective communication of Staffordshire’s shared employment and skills goals, and to inform the development of the Local Skills Improvement Plan (LSIP) for Stoke-on-Trent and Staffordshire.

A summary brochure of the Staffordshire Employment and Skills Strategy 2023-2030 has also been produced.

To effectively achieve our priorities and deliver our long-term vision for our economy we need robust ongoing analysis and evidence of the latest economic picture, ensuring that we are aware of any challenges that may arise. The monthly Economic Bulletin forms a key part of our live evidence base.

Welcome to the latest edition of the Staffordshire & Stoke-on-Trent Economic Bulletin produced by our Economy, Skills and Insight Teams, which provides the timeliest analysis of official Government data, national intelligence and local insights on the state of the local economy.

Latest edition

Economic Bulletin Issue 63 (2.1 MB)

Alongside information on the Claimant Count and Job Vacancies that will be a part of every Bulletin, this month’s issue also provides more detailed youth claimant count analysis and updated ward level analysis of the claimant count to help identify areas which are being impacted the hardest by unemployment and a reliance on work-related benefits across Staffordshire & Stoke-on-Trent and where there may be a greater need for support. We also provide analysis of the latest business insolvency data to further understand how businesses are faring during the current economic climate.

We hope you find the Bulletin useful and welcome your comments and suggestions on further information you would like to see included in future editions. If you do have any feedback please send your comments to SkillsAnalysis@staffordshire.gov.uk.

Kind regards,

Darryl Eyers

Director for Economy, Infrastructure and Skills, Staffordshire County Council

Local Picture

In Staffordshire having seen improvement in the local economy and labour market following the COVID pandemic, as seen nationally, we saw unemployment, youth unemployment and dependency on work-related benefits increase during the energy and cost-of-living crisis.

However, over the last year we have seen a steady decline in the Claimant Count, with residents either finding work or becoming economically inactive.

There is some positive news for jobseekers with the number of job vacancies showing an increase of 2% over the past year. Although this is a lower increase than seen regionally and nationally, where job vacancies in the West Midlands have increased 5% and nationally there has been a 13% increase.

We will continue to support our residents into work and ensure that Staffordshire has the strong workforce it needs to grow the economy.

We also continue to support local businesses that face ongoing challenging conditions due to a wide range of factors including high interest rates and energy prices, increased commodity costs, increased wage levels, and lower consumer demand.

Looking at the local data in more detail, the number of work-related benefit claimants in Staffordshire now stands at 15,150, this is 885 fewer claimants than at the same time last year. This is equivalent to a -5.5% annual reduction which is much higher than the reductions seen both regionally (-3.9%) and nationally (-3.3%).

The claimant rate in Staffordshire is currently 2.8% of the working age population, which has decreased from 2.9% the same period last year.

Staffordshire continues to have one of the lowest claimant rates in the region, far lower than the regional average 5.4% which decreased from 5.6% the previous month, and lower than the England average of 4.1% which also decreased from 4.2% the previous year.

We will continue to support those residents that unfortunately find themselves out of work to access employment through our partnership working and dedicated Jobs Brokerage service.

This month the youth claimant count in Staffordshire stands at 3,235, this is 180 more youth claimants than at the same time last year. This is equivalent to a 5.9% annual increase, although this is much lower than the increases seen both regionally (10.5%) and nationally (10.6%).

The youth claimant rate in Staffordshire is currently 5.2% of the 18-24 population, which is an increase from 4.9% last year. This is a concerning trend seen both regionally and nationally. It is important to note that Staffordshire continues to be lower than the national rate of 5.7%, which increased from 5.2% and far lower than the regional rate of 7.9% which increased from 7.1% over the last year. Our focus continues to be to engage with our younger residents and support them to find employment or to continue in education and training.

Turning to job vacancies, Staffordshire saw a 2% increase in the number of available job vacancies between October 2024 and October 2025 to a total of 12,900. This is lower than the number of work-related benefit claimants in Staffordshire. Stoke-on-Trent saw an increase of 22% in job vacancies to a total of 5,600 which is significantly lower than the number of claimants. Across the region in the past year there was a 5% increase, and nationally there was a 13% increase in the number of job vacancies.

Considering the top 20 job vacancy occupations in Staffordshire and Stoke-on-Trent, demand for roles in social care continue to remain high with ‘Care Workers & Home Carers’ being the most in demand occupations.

The following occupations, ‘Sales Related,’ ‘Cleaners & Domestics,’ and ‘Large Goods Vehicle Drivers’ also have strong demand.

It is in these areas of the economy where job vacancies remain particularly high and where we are hearing reports of labour and skills shortages with a mismatch of workers or skills to fill vacant jobs.

This has the potential to slow down economic growth and limit business survival unless the labour shortage and skills gap is quickly and effectively addressed. Clearly employment support organisations, skills providers and the Government’s Plan for Jobs including the Connect to Work schemes and new Skills Bootcamps have a vital role in upskilling and reskilling jobseekers into areas of demand and preventing them becoming long-term unemployed. Government and business sectors have a key role in ensuring that jobs in areas of demand are attracting workers with good pay and terms and conditions to help prevent labour shortages.

There continues to be a high number of jobs available in the local economy and the need now is to ensure that there is a strong local labour pool with skilled workers able to fill these roles to support business recovery/survival and improve prosperity through better pay. The national and local support which is in place to support those that have been unfortunate enough to lose their jobs is vital in both reskilling and upskilling as well as enabling potential applicants to access the opportunities available. Encouraging those that have become economically inactive since COVID through the Connect to Work Programme will further help to address labour shortages and skills gaps.

Staffordshire County Council’s dedicated Job Brokerage Service is designed to do exactly this by matching local people, employers, and training providers to fill jobs and provide people with the jobs and careers they need.

There are clear emerging opportunities for job creation in the digital economy (including online retail and e-commerce), construction sector (including retrofitting homes), the car industry e.g. electric cars at Jaguar Land Rover, and in manufacturing e.g. hydrogen combustion technology at JCB.

We will also look to build on our existing strengths including engineering and advanced manufacturing through the adoption of AI, Automation and Machine Learning, construction to achieve Government house building targets and build major new infrastructure projects such as the West Midlands Freight Interchange which will create 8,500 new jobs. Advanced logistics within the ecommerce sector continue to drive demand, evidenced by Pets At Home in Stafford recently creating over 750 new jobs and Carlsberg Britvic investing £4 million in a new depot, with plans to create several hundred additional jobs.

We will continue to support our residents into work and ensure that Staffordshire has the strong workforce it needs to grow the economy.

Local Initiatives

Staffordshire and Stoke-on-Trent businesses that have been turned down by other lenders can now apply to the Staffordshire and Stoke-on-Trent Business Loan Fund, supporting businesses to grow through affordable, unsecured loans from £10,000 to £50,000.

Applications for Staffordshire Means Back to Business Scheme business loans and grants remain open to small businesses in Staffordshire, including the Get Started and Grow Scheme.

Alongside this there is support available through the Growth Hub and we have our start-up schemes and the Staffordshire Jobs and Careers Service.

The Staffordshire Business and Enterprise Network (SBEN) continues to support local businesses with the transition to Net Zero.

Businesses in Staffordshire can now apply for free energy assessments through the Green Solutions scheme.

To ensure residents have access to the support needed to find employment there are several employment and skills programmes which they can access including the Connect to Work and skills bootcamps.

Stoke-On-Trent & Staffordshire Growth Hub have partnered with the Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) to offer free 1-2-1 virtual business support sessions.

The Staffordshire County Council Workplace Health Service, working with public health and local health experts, offers businesses a comprehensive and funded package of online and in-person support.

Developer Indurent plans to invest £800m in Staffordshire over the next few years. The industrial and logistics specialist is currently delivering or promoting six million sq ft of space in the county, said senior director of planning Richard Hickman. "These sites are either in the planning process with a draft allocation, or they’re sites that we're building on currently," said Hickman. "To bring those sites forward over the next few years, we’re going to be investing something in the order of £800m. That's a huge investment and a reflection of the confidence that we have in Staffordshire. "We’re very much focused on the spine of the country and Staffordshire is the central part of that spine."

JCB is marking its 80th birthday with news of a £100 million investment in ultra-modern manufacturing facilities at its global headquarters in Staffordshire. The project at the company’s plant in Rocester, Staffordshire, will see the installation of a fully automated powder paint plant costing £60 million as well as a full modernisation of the shop floor, with new machining centres, friction welders and cylinder boring machines.

National Context

The Chancellor has delivered her much-anticipated Autumn Budget, with a wide range of measures associated to personal taxation; wages, benefits and pensions; housing and property; transport; business taxes; and food and drink. Alongside UK growth, inflation and debt forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).

Economy

The UK economy grew by 0.1 per cent in the three months to September 2025, with output in September falling by 0.1 per cent amid a drop in manufacturing.

Cost of Living

UK inflation fell to 3.6 per cent in the year to October, driven mainly by lower rises in gas and electricity prices.

This was the first cooling in the inflation rate for five months, declining from a peak of 3.8 per cent over July, August and September.

Although the rate of inflation remains well above the Bank of England's 2 per cent target, the decline this month may smooth the path to interest rate cuts, following interest rates being held at four per cent earlier in the month.

Annual growth in real terms, adjusted for inflation using the Consumer Prices Index excluding owner occupiers' housing costs (CPI), was 0.8% for regular pay and 1.0% for total pay, in July to September 2025.

Business Conditions

The latest results from Wave 144 of the Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS), which was live from 3 to 16 November 2025, suggest that business conditions continue to be challenging with turnover being impacted.

The latest business insolvencies data shows that in October 2025 there were a total of 2,131 company insolvencies in England and Wales, 17% higher than the number registered in the previous year (1,828 in October 2024), and 9% higher than the number registered three years previously (1,956 in October 2022). The main concern around company and individual insolvencies are associated issues such as mental health and homelessness.

Labour Market

Estimates for payrolled employees in the UK fell by 117,000 (0.4%) between September 2024 and September 2025 and decreased by 32,000 (0.1%) between August 2025 and September 2025.

The UK employment rate for people aged 16 to 64 years was estimated at 75.0% in July to September 2025. This is down in the latest quarter but above estimates of a year ago.

The UK unemployment rate for people aged 16 years and over was estimated at 5.0% in July to September 2025. This is up in the latest quarter and above estimates of a year ago.

The UK economic inactivity rate for people aged 16 to 64 years was estimated at 21.0% in July to September 2025. This is largely unchanged in the latest quarter but below estimates of a year ago.

The UK Claimant Count for October 2025 increased on the month but decreased on the year to an estimated 1.696 million.

The estimated number of vacancies in the UK are broadly unchanged on the quarter; early estimates suggest a small increase of just 2,000 (0.2%) vacancies to 723,000 in August to October 2025.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the Chancellor has delivered her much-anticipated Autumn Budget with a range of measures impacting households and businesses across Staffordshire.

The budget comes at a time when there has been a slowing in GDP growth and the UK economy shrunk in September due to a drop in manufacturing, and there are real concerns that any economic growth over coming months will be limited at best.

It is positive that inflation fell in October, but it is still almost double the Bank’s target contributing to weaker economic growth. At the same time, real wage growth continues to come down and the cost-of-living remains a challenge for many. If inflation has reached a peak and continues to decline it may signal interest rate cuts which would benefit those struggling with costs.

Alongside continuing global uncertainty and the introduction of new business-related UK taxes, many businesses also have ongoing concerns around longer-term issues including high interest rates and energy prices, increased commodity costs, wage pressures, supply-chain constraints, lower consumer confidence, and some labour market challenges.

The labour market continues to loosen, with pay growth forecast to slow. It is concerning that this month’s labour market figures show that payrolled employees and employment have continued to decline, while the level of unemployment has increased to the highest level since 2020 and economic inactivity has stopped falling. This all comes at a time when job vacancies have seen a long-term decline, with the challenging economic conditions meaning more businesses have reduced recruitment and made redundancies, therefore it will be more challenging for those looking for work to find work.

We need to continue to support those still struggling with the cost-of-living, residents to transition into work and viable businesses to survive and grow.

In Staffordshire we have a confident, diverse, and robust economy, demonstrated by the improvement and recovery witnessed since the pandemic. As the ongoing global and national socio-economic challenges persist it remains vital that local partners work together to support local businesses and residents. We continue to deliver the Staffordshire Means Business Programme which has helped hundreds of Staffordshire businesses transition to new business models including diversification, digitisation and greenification to improve their viability and sustainability.

We continue to support residents into work and help businesses address ongoing labour shortages and skills gaps to aid survival and growth. A key part of this being the recently established Staffordshire Jobs and Careers Brokerage Service which is designed to match local people, employers, and training providers to fill jobs and provide people with the jobs and careers they need.

Alongside this, skills provision, such as the new Institute of Technology, has a significant role to play in ensuring that local residents have the skills and training needed within the local economy to support increased growth, productivity, and prosperity. Reskilling and upskilling residents from declining sectors into priority growth areas of the economy such as digital, green, advanced manufacturing, advanced logistics, construction, and health and social care where they can access higher value better paid jobs will be key.